Weekly third down conversion chart

Some improvement Saturday against a good TCU defense. A 5/9 first half led to 10 points and the lead. A 2/8 second half led to 0 points and a loss. 

Year	3rd and 1-3	3rd and 4-6	3rd and 7-10	3rd and 11 or more
2008	60.71%	38.10%	20.69%	8.33%
2009	50.00%	41.18%	25.00%	18.18%
2009	9/18	7/17	6/24	2/11

Tiger baseball loses Mounce

Man, the Tigers are taking hit after hit. Mounce didn’t do a whole lot last year, but you have to figure he was in the plans for 2010 considering the losses the Tigers have already had this offseason.

1st downs – bet on a run

As we reported last week Billy Napier’s play calling gets more conservative as the Tigers cross midfield. Runs on first down surge from 67% to 81% once the Tigers get to the opponents side of the field.  The TCU game was no different in that the Tigers faced 9 first and 10s on the TCU side of the field and ran the ball 8 times.

Down/Distance	Field Position	Run%	Pass %
1/10	<=50	67.2%	32.8%
1/10	>=51	81.4%	18.6%
Total	-	73.1%	26.9%

There are many valid reasons for this – a young quarterback chief among them, but it does seem to have hurt, or at least contributed to, the Tigers lack of production and settling for field goals instead of touchdowns.

If I can figure out a run is coming on first and 10 in opponents territory just think what defensive coordinators facing the Tigers can figure out.

Pick ‘Em Week 5

Week 5 games and spreads

Game	Spread	AccuScore Predicted Score	Actual Score	AccuScore	CUOrange	Texas D	B. Rink	A. Eargle
Oklahoma @ Miami	Miami +7
Florida State @ Boston College	BC +5
Michigan @ Michigan State	PICK
Clemson @ Maryland	MD +13.5
LSU @ Georgia	LSU +2.5
UCLA @ Stanford	UCLA +6
Oregon State @ Arizona State	OSU +4.5
Georgia Tech @ Mississippi St.	MSU +4.5
Auburn @ Tennessee	Auburn +1
USC @ California	Cal +5

Offensive and defensive efficiencies

The offense continues to sink into the great abyss where terrible offenses go to die. I can’t believe how bad our wide receivers have played thus far.

Offensive Efficiency

Opponent	TD	FG	Punts	TO	Downs	Half	Possess	Points	OE
MTSU	2	3	3	2	3	1	14	23	1.64
Georgia Tech	3	2	6	2	2	0	15	27	1.80
Boston College	0	6	5	3	1	1	16	18	1.13
TCU	1	1	5	0	4	0	11	10	0.91
Totals	6	12	19	7	10	2	56	78	1.39

Another pretty good defensive game wasted. True enough the TCU quarterback looked like Herschel Walker running the ball, but when you only give up 14 points you should win the game. Not at Clemson.

Defensive Efficiency

Opponent	TD	FG	Punts	TO	Downs	Half	Possess	Points	DE
MTSU	1	0	7	3	3	1	15	7	0.47
Georgia Tech	2	3	6	2	0	2	15	23	1.53
Boston College	1	0	10	4	1	1	17	7	0.41
TCU	2	0	6	0	1	2	11	14	1.27
Totals	6	3	29	9	5	6	58	51	0.88

Pick ‘Em Standings after week 4

A. Eargle implodes with a 2-8 week.

Contestant	Won	Loss	Push	Pct	GB
AccuScore	20	20	0	50.00	-
CUOrange	18	22	0	45.00	2
A. Eargle	17	23	0	42.50	3
B. Rink	15	25	0	37.50	5
Texas D	15	25	0	37.50	5

 

But nobody is running away with this thing.

Halftime thoughts

1. Spiller doesn’t look comfortable from the opening kick.  Went into first huddle with hands on hips.
2. A pass to the TE on the first play.  Nice.
3. Two of first three plays are passes to TE.  Even nicer.
4. Three third down conversions in a row.  Wow.
5. 6:39 on the first drive, but a FG instead of a TD.
6. Questionable play calling on third and 8 on 2nd drive (option).
7. All Michael Palmer does is catch everything thrown to him.
8. A draw play to Spiller.  Imagine that.  First down.
9. C.J. Spiller is the man.
10. Kevin Steele dials up a nice defense.
11. 5 of 9 on third downs.

Perception Game

The perception of Clemson football has taken some massive hits over the last few years. From the Virginia Tech debacle of 2006 to the Boston College loss at Death Valley in 2007 with the divisional title on the line to the obliteration by Alabama that began the 2008 season, the Tigers have failed miserably on the big stage.

While the Tigers aren’t on a big stage this weekend the game against TCU will go a long way towards shaping the perception of the 2009 Clemson football team, maybe even more so since the game is not on national TV. Most of the country won’t see the game (ESPN360.com), they’ll see updates, the final score and maybe a minute of SportsCenter highlights. If those highlights show Clemson beating a 15th ranked team that is known for being well-coached and disciplined the perception of Clemson football will soar. It doesn’t even matter how the Tigers win. If the Tigers play terrible and win, most of the country won’t see it. They’ll see that Clemson beat #15. They’ll see a team that is one game against a weak opponent away from being 4-1 going into their bye week.

On the other hand, if the Tigers lose it won’t matter how they lose either. Losing 10-7 or 27-10 is all the same to writers across the country. Clemson will have failed again. At home. It won’t matter how well Clemson plays in a loss. It won’t matter how bad Clemson was hosed by the referees. It’s a loss in a big game. Again.

In a lot of ways this game will define the early perception (for those who haven’t already decided) of Dabo’s head coaching career. Win and many will take notice saying that the Tigers are headed in the right direction. Lose and many will say “I told you so”.

 Thousands of Clemson fans will discuss the finer points of the game afterwards and into next week, but in the big picture it won’t matter one bit. What matters is the W or the L. Period.

Weekly third down rant

Sitting at 33.3% on third down conversions through the first two games you had to figure that it couldn’t get worse for the Tigers.  Think again.  A 6 for 20 day against Boston College brought the Tigers down to 32.08% and a 99th national ranking.
 

Year	3rd and 1-3	3rd and 4-6	3rd and 7-10	3rd and 11 or more
2008	60.71%	38.10%	20.69%	8.33%
2009	50.00%	33.33%	27.78%	20.00%
2009	5/10	5/15	5/18	2/10

 

The good news is that the third and short (1-3 yards) has improved a bit, but the medium (4-6 yards) and long (7-10 and 11+ yards) leave something to be desired, though there is some improvement in these numbers over last year.
 
I don’t really expect to see great numbers on third and long, to think otherwise is an exercise in self-flagellation.  However, 33% on third and 4-6 is not the sign of a good offense.

Tight Ends MIA

Michael Palmer

Five catches for 46 yards and a touchdown. Not a bad game for a tight end. Too bad it’s actually the season total through three games for Clemson tight ends Michael Palmer and Dwayne Allen. And that’s with Palmer’s three catches against Boston College.

Once again this year we heard how the tight ends will produce bigger numbers. One estimate had Palmer catching 30 passes. He may do that, but at this point he is on pace to pull in 16 receptions in the regular season.

Surely you say, those numbers correspond to Kyle Parker’s struggles at quarterback. No not really. Of the 214 plays the Tigers have run on offense 8 have been thrown to the tight end. Eight of 214. 3.7%. Approximately 1 of every 27 plays is a pass is thrown to a tight end.

Maybe they’re needed for blocking due to the Tigers porous offensive line. Maybe the defenses played so far don’t lend to the tight end being a featured aspect of the Tiger offense. Maybe the tight ends are an afterthought for Billy Napier.

In their limited opportunities the tight ends have been productive. Of the 8 passes thrown their way 5 were complete. Three of those receptions gained first downs, another was a touchdown and the other was one yard short of a first down (followed by a 4th down conversion).

With the struggles in the running game and the drops by the wide receivers, why not use the tight ends as part of the “running game”? From all appearances they have the hands for it.

If there is anything that’s a better bet than Clemson being “one play away”, it’s that the Clemson tight ends won’t be a significant part of the game plan.

Prove me wrong Billy Napier. I hope you do.