College Baseball – Finding a champion

Since we are a little more than two weeks out from the beginning of college baseball, I thought I would slip in a post on the subject. In previous posts (and years) I have delineated the importance of defense in football and basketball. To recap – 9 of the last 10 BCS Champions in football have had top 10 ranked defenses and top 10 run defenses. In basketball, over the last 6 years the worst defensive efficiency rating of the national champion was 16.

The table below shows that 7 of the last 8 baseball national champions finished in the top 17 in fielding. Five of the 8 finished in the top 8, and 4 of the 8 finished in the top 5.

If you add in the fact that 7 of the last 8 baseball champions also finished in the top 22 in ERA an obvious pattern presents itself, with the exception of 2008 Fresno State of course.

Year	Team	Batting	Slugging	Fielding	ERA
2002	Texas	99	65	5	2
2003	Rice	41	103	2	2
2004	Cal State – Fullerton	9	56	17	22
2005	Texas	80	74	3	4
2006	Oregon State	85	95	8	14
2007	Oregon State	162	129	2	11
2008	Fresno State	125	102	52	56
2009	LSU	78	34	16	9

Only one team finished in the top 10 in batting and won the championship (Fullerton in 2004). The highest rated slugging team was last years LSU coming in at 34th.

What this tells us is that pitching and defense are much more important than offense in college baseball today.

In many cases highly ranked offensive teams rolled into Omaha and left on the losing end to a better pitching and fielding team. Some examples: In 2002 Texas came in with the lowest batting average and second lowest slugging percentage of the 8 teams in Omaha. Yet, with a fielding percentage that was 5th in the nation and the 2nd ranked ERA they left as champions. In 2006 Oregon State had the lowest batting average and slugging percentage of the 8 teams in the World Series. However, the Beavers also came in with the second highest defensive rating of the 8 teams and an ERA that ranked 14th nationally. It was the first of two consecutive championships for the defensive and pitching minded club.

LSU finished the 2009 season with a 78th ranked batting average, but a 16th ranked fielding average and a 9th ranked ERA. They left as champions.

It’s important to note that the other team in the finals last year also met the criteria based on defense (8th) and ERA (2nd). However, Texas was such an anemic hitting team (206th in batting average) you understand why I predicted LSU to win the title.

So when judging the ability of your team to compete use these markers:
1) Defense = top 17 or better
2) ERA = top 22 or better
3) Batting and Slugging = top 100 or better

The numbers are compelling. Offense sells tickets while defense (and pitching) wins championships.

Dan Pepicelli named pitching coach

This is a few days old and it’s football season (isn’t it?) but I thought this may be worth a sentence or two.  Kyle Bunn took a patchwork staff without a superstar and turned them into a staff with the number 5 ERA in the country last year.  From all accounts Pepicelli is a good coach and a great guy, but he has his work cut out for him in replacing Bunn.

Tiger baseball loses Mounce

Man, the Tigers are taking hit after hit. Mounce didn’t do a whole lot last year, but you have to figure he was in the plans for 2010 considering the losses the Tigers have already had this offseason.

Pitching coach Kyle Bunn headed to Bama

This is a few days old, but it’s a huge loss.  In my opinion, Bunn had a ton to do with the Tigers having a top 5 ERA last year and will be sorely missed.

Add this to the loss of Dwyer, Stoneburner, and signee Madison Younginer and the Tigers have taken serious hits to their staff.

Tigers lose Dwyer and Younginer to pros

Chris Dwyer

It happens to most good college teams this time of year or earlier.  One or more of their top players sign with a big league club.  But, it doesn’t typically happen to a pitcher who just finished his freshman year.  Such is the case for Chris Dwyer and the Clemson Tigers. 

Dwyer had an up and down year for the Tigers, but there was never any question about his talent and that was proven true this week as he broke the record for a signing bonus for a 4th round pick.

Clemson signee Madison Younginer signed with the Boston Red Sox for $1 million after being selected in the 7th round and obviously won’t be playing for the Tigers.

Though I was looking forward to both of these guys playing for Clemson next year, when you sign good players these things are going to happen.  They happen all the time at the top schools across the country.  It’s painful in some respects, but a good sign in others.

College Baseball Wrapup

Some want to deny it. Others want to pooh-pooh it. But there’s no way around it and no doubt  it exists.  However, you can learn from it.

Once again this year, and for the 7th time in 8 years, the CWS Champ finished in the top 17 in fielding and top 22 in pitching.

Year	Team	Fielding	ERA	Batting Avg	Slugging
2002	Texas	5	2	99	65
2003	Rice	2	2	41	103
2004	Cal State – Fullerton	17	22	9	56
2005	Texas	3	4	80	74
2006	Oregon State	8	14	85	95
2007	Oregon State	2	11	162	129
2008	Fresno State	52	56	125	102
2009	Louisiana State	16	9	78	34

Texas would have obviously met this criteria if the Horns had won, but it was LSU’s defense in the championship series (only two errors) that vaulted the Tigers into the top 17 and kept the trend in order.

So next year, when your team looks like a champion in March and April, when you think they have what it takes, come back and visit CUOrange and we’ll give you the truth:  Contender or Pretender.

Coming Soon

The College World Series has come to an end and the two month summer dead period for college sports is in its early stages.  Typically that means fewer posts due to a corresponding decrease in activity (games!).
 
So what’s in store for the faithful readers of cuorange?  We’ve got several annual features and some new features in store for the near future.
 
1.      Our annual “Talent Level” survey for all ACC teams and select teams across the country that will give our readers an idea of the talent level of two deep rosters and gives the average fan an opportunity to see how their team and coaches are performing.  This also allows fans to see through the hype of “we have more talent than anyone” fallacy that permeates team specific web sites.
2.      A statistical look across 12 important areas and how certain of these statistics closely relate to winning championships and how others that are typically trumpeted as important are not in actuality.  We’ll track these through the year to give our readers a fact based look at whether their team is a contender or pretender.
3.      Our annual preseason poll (see sidebar to the right) where readers choose their choice for the BCS title.
4.      Final thoughts on college baseball.
5.      Have an idea?  Let me know what you want to see and read – I can’t promise I’ll do it all, but if the subject interest me and I have the time, I’ll do my best.

CWS Finals

Up to this point we’ve picked game by game and gone an amazing 9-3. If Fullerton hadn’t turned into an ACC team in Omaha the record would have been even better than 75%. For the finals we pick the winner of the series only.

College World Series Finals

Team	Fielding	ERA	Batting Avg	Slugging	SoS	Power Rating
Louisiana State	21	9	78	39	36	712.340
Texas	4	2	208	227	16	703.573

Friday CWS Games

The annual ritual continues: The ACC gets multiple teams to Omaha and then they fall all over themselves to get eliminated. That’s one thing I can predict.

Record moves to 7-3.

Friday, June 19
Game 11

Team	Fielding	ERA	Batting Avg	Slugging	SoS	Power Rating
Louisiana State	21	9	78	39	36	712.340
Arkansas	62	40	264	156	3	640.021

Game 12

Team	Fielding	ERA	Batting Avg	Slugging	SoS	Rating
Texas	4	2	208	227	16	703.573
Arizona State	63	1	127	51	4	700.759

Thursday CWS Game

Virginia finds out just how contagious dookie britches are and goes home, dropping my record to 6-3.

June 18
Game 10

Team	Fielding	ERA	Batting Avg	Slugging	SoS	Rating
Arizona State	63	1	127	51	4	700.759
North Carolina	48	5	105	83	47	672.477