The contenders

These stats are through games of Saturday, 2/20/2010

Here’s the criteria to reach the final four:

1. Defensive efficiency ranking of 25 or better

2. Offensive efficiency ranking of 50 or better

3. RPI ranking of 27 or better

Team	O Efficiency	D Efficiency	RPI	% Final Four	% Champ
Kansas	2	3	1	100.0	83.3
Duke	1	13	3	33.3	16.7
Syracuse	14	9	2	12.5	0.0
Purdue	27	4	8	8.3	0.0
Wisconsin	15	16	20	4.2	0.0
BYU	8	19	18	0.0	0.0
Kentucky	12	20	4	0.0	0.0
Kansas State	17	24	6	0.0	0.0

The basic concept here is that though a team like Wisconsin has both the offensive and defensive efficiencies to make it to the final four, when you combine the two the chances are much less. In other words, one of the last 24 teams have had an offensive efficiency of 15 or worse and a defensive efficiency of 16 or worse.

This refining also removes 3 teams from our final four contenders – Brigham Young, Kentucky and Kansas State, that our previous formula would have included.

At this point the Final Four consists of Kansas, Duke, Syracuse and Purdue. Later this week, we’ll use Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology to put teams into regions and see if that has any effect on which teams make it to the Final Four (i.e. if Kansas and Syracuse end up in the same region only one team can advance).

The percentages don’t always add up to 100% because in this formula one team’s chances are independent of another teams chances.

Bracketology and the Final Four

Last week’s iteration had a Final Four of Kansas, Texas, Wisconsin and Syracuse. Lunardi has moved some teams to different regions this week, and coupled with Texas’ continued free fall, this has changed our projected Final Four.

Kansas wins the Midwest and Syracuse takes the West over Purdue/West Virginia. Our first non-number one seed advances in the South with Wisconsin, a projected #3, ousting Kentucky, and this is followed by projected 2 seed Duke beating Villanova.

I am one of the ones that don’t think Duke passes the eyeball test. On the other hand, the point of this exercise is to take the biases (against or for a certain team, such as Duke) out of the equation and when you do that the Blue Devils have really good numbers (like the #1 rated offensive efficiency for much of the year).

Team	O Efficiency	D Efficiency	RPI	% Final Four	% Champ
Kansas	2	3	1	100.0	83.3
Duke	1	12	4	37.5	33.3
Syracuse	13	6	2	12.5	0.0
Wisconsin	14	9	14	12.5	0.0

In the semi’s it would be Kansas over Syracuse in what could be an entertaining game and Duke over Wisconsin (who they’ve already lost to this season).

The final would be Kansas over Duke.

College Basketball Contenders

These stats are through games of Saturday, 2/13/2010

Here’s the criteria to reach the final four:

1. Defensive efficiency ranking of 25 or better

2. Offensive efficiency ranking of 50 or better

3. RPI ranking of 27 or better

Team	O Efficiency	D Efficiency	RPI	% Final Four	% Champ
Kansas	2	3	1	100.0	83.3
Duke	1	12	4	37.5	33.3
Syracuse	13	6	2	12.5	0.0
Wisconsin	14	9	14	12.5	0.0
Kansas State	21	14	8	8.3	0.0
Purdue	23	11	10	4.2	0.0
West Virginia	4	25	6	4.2	0.0
Brigham Young	10	21	19	0.0	0.0
Kentucky	18	19	5	0.0	0.0

The basic concept here is that though a team like West Virginia has both the offensive and defensive efficiencies to make it to the final four, when you combine the two the chances are much less. In other words, one of the last 24 teams have had an offensive efficiency of 4 or worse and a defensive efficiency of 25 or worse.

This refining also removes two teams from our final four contenders – Brigham Young and Kentucky, that our old formula would have included.

It looks like we have a Final Four: Kansas, Duke, Syracuse and Wisconsin.  Later this week, we’ll use Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology to put teams into regions and see if that has any effect on which teams make it to the Final Four (i.e. if Kansas and Syracuse end up in the same region only one team can advance).

The percentages don’t add up to 100% because in this formula one team’s chances are independent of another teams chances.

Projecting the Final Four and Champion

To this point we have been projecting possible final four teams and a champion based on historical trends of offensive and defensive efficiencies. This week we are adding a percentage for each team to reach the final four and win the championship. After all, a team like Texas with an offensive efficiency of 32 and a defensive efficiency of 12 meets the criteria for the final four, but their chances are less than say, Syracuse with an offensive efficiency of 11 and a defensive efficiency of 7.

These stats are through games of Saturday, 2/6/2010

Here’s the criteria to reach the final four:

1. Defensive efficiency ranking of 25 or better

2. Offensive efficiency ranking of 50 or better

3. RPI ranking of 27 or better

Team	O Efficiency	D Efficiency	RPI	% Final Four	% Champ
Kansas	2	4	1	100.0	100.0
Wisconsin	5	15	9	16.7	0.0
Syracuse	11	7	2	12.5	0.0
Duke	1	23	3	4.2	0.0
Kansas State	17	8	8	4.2	0.0
Purdue	22	17	11	4.2	0.0
Texas	32	12	21	4.2	0.0
West Virgina	4	22	4	4.2	0.0
Brigham Young	12	24	23	0.0	0.0
Kentucky	13	21	6	0.0	0.0

The basic concept here is that though a team like Texas has both the offensive and defensive efficiencies to make it to the final four, when you combine the two the chances are much less.  In other words, one of the last 24 teams have had an offensive efficiency of 32 or worse and a defensive efficiency of 12 or worse.

This refining also removes two teams from our final four contenders – Brigham Young and Kentucky, that our old formula would have included.

Three of the final four look pretty strong.  The question at this point who will be the fourth team.

Overrated?

Villanova (20-1, 9-0) has become the darling of the college basketball media.  I’ve seen them projected as a number 1 seed.  I’ve heard them talked about as a final four team.  Some have even said they are the best team in the nation and have a shot at winning it all come April.
 
Villanova may wind up with a number one seed.  They won’t win it all and they won’t make the final four.
 
How do I know?  Defensive efficiency.  The Wildcat’s are ranked 62nd in that category through the first 21 games of the season.  No team in the last 6 years has made the final four with a defensive efficiency higher than 25.  No one.  Not even George Mason in 2006 (18th). Zero for 24.

Team	O Efficiency	D Efficiency	RPI
Villanova	3	62	3

 
The Wildcats are demons on offense, with an efficiency ranking of 3, national championship caliber.  But when push comes to shove they won’t be able to stop a team somewhere along the line in the tournament and will bow out prior to the final four.
 
Nine games plus the conference tournament still remain for the Wildcats to get to the magic 25 number in defensive efficiency (plus games in the NCAA tournament).  The chances of them making it are slim.  There are no more Fairleigh Dickinson’s, Penn’s, Drexel’s or Fordham’s left on the schedule.

College Basketball Contenders

These stats are through games of Saturday, 1/30/2010

Here’s the criteria to reach the final four:

1. Defensive efficiency ranking of 25 or better

2. Offensive efficiency ranking of 50 or better

3. RPI ranking of 27 or better

Team	O Efficiency	D Efficiency	RPI
Kansas	1	3	2
Duke	2	17	3
Syracuse	11	12	1
Brigham Young	13	16	21
Kentucky	14	25	8
Kansas State	18	23	5
Purdue	22	18	10
Wisconsin	29	7	12
Texas	34	9	9

Once a team reaches the final four, offensive efficiency becomes much more important.

National championship criteria:

1. Defensive efficiency ranking of 16 or better

2. Offensive efficiency ranking of 4 or better

3. RPI ranking of 16 or better

Kansas sits alone as potential national champions. Duke is right on the cusp with a 17th ranked defensive efficiency.

Team	O Efficiency	D Efficiency	RPI
Kansas	1	3	2

College Basketball Contenders

These stats are through games of Sunday, 1/24/2010

Here’s the criteria to reach the final four:

1. Defensive efficiency ranking of 25 or better

2. Offensive efficiency ranking of 50 or better

3. RPI ranking of 27 or better

Team	O Efficiency	D Efficiency	RPI
Duke	1	15	3
Kansas	2	3	2
BYU	7	17	20
Syracuse	8	14	1
Purdue	21	18	12
Kansas State	22	20	7
Wisconsin	27	4	10
Texas	33	6	9
Missouri	42	9	45

Once a team reaches the final four, offensive efficiency becomes much more important.

National championship criteria:

1. Defensive efficiency ranking of 16 or better

2. Offensive efficiency ranking of 4 or better

3. RPI ranking of 16 or better

Kansas and Duke remain potential national champions. Kansas has pulled ahead and as of today is the front-runner for the national championship.

Team	O Efficiency	D Efficiency	RPI
Duke	1	15	3
Kansas	2	3	2

CBB Predictions 1/23/10

I trudge on with a 5-13 record so far.

Date	Favorite	Underdog	Spread	Pick	Result
1/23/10	Duke	Clemson	1	Clemson	Loss
1/23/10	Texas	Connecticut	3	Texas	Loss
1/9/10	Clemson	Boston College	9	Clemson	Win
1/9/10	Duke	Georgia Tech	7	Georgia Tech	Win
1/9/10	Texas	Colorado	19 1/2	Texas	Loss
1/2/10	Kentucky	Louisville	7 1/2	Louisville	Loss
1/2/10	Kansas	Temple	6 1/2	Temple	Loss
1/2/10	Michigan State	Northwestern	4 1/2	Northwestern	Loss
12/22/09	Clemson	Western Carolina	15 1/2	WCU	Loss
12/22/09	Texas	Michigan State	8 1/2	Texas	Win
12/16/09	Clemson	East Carolina	14	ECU	Loss
12/13/09	Clemson	Furman	21 1/2	Furman	Loss
12/12/09	Butler	Ohio State	3 1/2	Ohio State	Loss
12/12/09	Kentucky	Indiana	9	Kentucky	Win
12/12/09	Gonzaga	Dayton	12 1/2	Gonzaga	Loss
12/12/09	Purdue	Alabama	4 1/2	Purdue	Win
12/11/09	Tennessee	Middle Tennessee State	20	MTSU	Loss
12/10/09	Michigan State	Oakland (Mich)	21 1/2	Oakland	Loss
12/10/09	Cincinnati	Miami, OH	14 1/2	Cincinnati	Loss
12/10/09	Syracuse	Florida	2	Florida	Loss

College Basketball Contenders

These stats are through games of Saturday, 1/16/2010

Here’s the criteria to reach the final four:

1. Defensive efficiency ranking of 25 or better

2. Offensive efficiency ranking of 50 or better

3. RPI ranking of 27 or better

Team	O Efficiency	D Efficiency	RPI
Duke	1	9	1
Kansas	2	4	3
Syracuse	6	15	5
Wisconsin	16	8	7
Pittsburgh	45	25	8
Texas	32	24	10
Georgetown	15	3	13
Purdue	30	16	15
Michigan State	18	22	21
Brigham Young	5	12	23
Tennessee	44	11	25

Once a team reaches the final four, offensive efficiency becomes much more important.

National championship criteria:

1. Defensive efficiency ranking of 16 or better

2. Offensive efficiency ranking of 4 or better

3. RPI ranking of 16 or better

Kansas and Duke remain potential national champions.  Syracuse is right on the cusp with a 6th ranked offensive efficiency.

Team	O Efficiency	D Efficiency	RPI
Duke	1	9	1
Kansas	2	4	3

The Contenders

These stats are through games of Sunday, 1/10/2010.

Here’s the criteria to reach the final four:

1. Defensive efficiency ranking of 25 or better

2. Offensive efficiency ranking of 50 or better

3. RPI ranking of 27 or better

Team	O Efficiency	D Efficiency	RPI
Duke	1	8	2
Kansas	2	2	4
Purdue	22	9	5
Syracuse	8	14	7
Georgetown	39	21	12
Texas	17	4	14
Wisconsin	20	10	15
Brigham Young	9	20	22

Once a team reaches the final four, offensive efficiency becomes much more important.

National championship criteria:

1. Defensive efficiency ranking of 16 or better

2. Offensive efficiency ranking of 4 or better

3. RPI ranking of 16 or better

Kansas and Duke remain potential national champions.

Team	O Efficiency	D Efficiency	RPI
Duke	1	8	2
Kansas	2	2	4