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Checking in on C.J.’s numbers

Posted by cuorange on October 2, 2009

cj-spillerBack in August I attempted to project C.J. Spiller’s all-purpose yardage for the 2009 season. Using a Ouija board, hammer, duct tape and a paper clip I managed to come up with 2,559 yards.

At the one third point of the season it’s time to take a look and see where I was staggeringly off base (at least so far).

I underestimated the number of carries C.J. would have. Or perhaps I overestimated Jamie Harper for the second year in a row. C.J. is on pace for 216 carries, though I don’t expect him to hit that number. I expect Andre Ellington to shoulder more of the load in coming weeks. Not the majority, but more.

  Rush Atts Yds TD 10+ 20+ Rec Yds TD 20+ KO Ret Punt Ret Total
August Estimate 188 1,016 11 32 10 54 567 6 11 734 242 2,559
Projected as of today 218 936 3 26 7 26 488 3 7 770 592 2,785

Even with that, C.J.’s rushing average is down to 4.3, leaving him about 70 yards short of my projected rushing totals.

I really missed on the number of receptions (I expect this to increase as Clemson gets to the meat of conference play), but luckily Spiller’s gaudy 18.8 yard per reception average has kept the receiving yards within striking distance of my August estimate.

I pretty much nailed the kick off return yards (so far), but way underestimated the punt return yards. I estimated 242 punt return yards, while C.J. is on pace for 592.

What stands out to me though is that if Spiller stays healthy he has a legitimate shot at 3,000 total yards. Now the defenses get better (Miami, N.C. State, Florida State, South Carolina), but he also has two difficult defenses behind him (Boston College and TCU) and has averaged 214 yards per game, while sitting out 90% of the second half of MTSU and most of the second half of Boston College. To reach 3,000 yards C.J. would have to average just over 238 yards per game over the next 9 games (including a bowl game).

The tough defenses above are somewhat offset by Maryland, Coastal Carolina, Virginia and Wake). I doubt he reaches 3,000 because if the Tigers get ahead by any margin he will come out of the game, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility as despite Spiller’s yardage totals the Tigers have had a difficult time scoring and blow outs aren’t a sure thing in any game.

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2 Responses to “Checking in on C.J.’s numbers”

  1. aeargle said

    I definitely expect him to hit 1,000 tomorrow.

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