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Power Poll for the undefeateds

Posted by cuorange on October 6, 2009

The power rankings below are based on 15 statistical categories that have proven over the last 9 years to determine the BCS Champion, with the highly correlated statistics (such as total defense and scoring defense) weighted more heavily.

A score of 1.000 would be a perfect score and if a team has a power ranking of .903, this means that the team is playing at 90.3% efficiency.

It’s important to understand that these rankings look at past performance and are not a predictor of future games, i.e. I am not saying South Florida would beat Texas. I’m saying South Florida has played better than Texas to this point of the year.

Rank Team Power
1 Florida .90284
2 Alabama .90280
3 South Florida .877
4 Boise State .852
5 Texas .834
6 Cincinnati .811
7 TCU .782
8 Kansas .760
9 Auburn .714
10 Iowa .701
11 LSU .690
12 Missouri .648
13 Wisconsin .605

Florida and Bama are in a virtual dead heat that went to the 5th decimal for Florida to gain a slight advantage. At this point in the season I would predict the Florida-Alabama winner (in SEC Championship) to play Texas for the national title. Bama’s scoring defense is just outside of the top 10 currently so I would favor Florida to win that game (assuming Tebow plays) and ultimately beat Texas for the title.

Why is Texas so low relative to Florida and Bama? A 65th ranked pass defense and 61st ranking in turnovers lost sure don’t help, but what it really boils down to is that Florida and Alabama have better defenses, at least to this point of the season.

One could argue that Texas defenses ranking is where it is because of playing in the gun slinging Big 12. Sure, Texas Tech racked up some passing yards against Texas, but with their other games being Louisiana-Monroe, Wyoming, and UTEP there really isn’t much excuse for a 65th ranked pass defense through 4 games.

The frauds of the group? Wisconsin, Missouri and LSU. All three of those might go down this week.


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