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In depth look at third downs

Posted by cuorange on December 23, 2009

Here’s a table with the results of every third down situation this year (including 3rd and goal to go of the various distances). When you’re clicking along at 38.67% (70 for 181) overall you know there are going to be some ugly stats mixed in there and we don’t have to look far to find those.

While 59.1% doesn’t sound so bad, it doesn’t really sound great when it’s third and 1. Think about that. Over 40% of the time the Tigers failed on 3rd and 1. Wow. And when you get to third and 5 or more, well lets just say the chances aren’t good.

The moral of the story for the Tigers is to go into third down with 4 or less yards to go that way Clemson has a 59.7% chance of converting. Otherwise, it’s 26.3% chance for the Tigers, basically one of every 4.

There are a couple of interesting anomalies in the numbers though. While the Tigers are 5 for 15 on 3rd and 6 and 1 for 16 on 3rd and 8 (what the hell?) they are 6 for 12 on 3rd and 7 and 4 of 8 on 3rd and 11. So, 33% on 3rd and 6, 6% on 3rd and 8, but 50% on 3rd and 7 and 3rd and 11.  Alrighty.

To Go Made/Att PCT
 1  13/22   59.1
2  7/12  58.3
3  10/16  62.5
4  10/17  58.8
5  4/13  30.8
6  5/16  31.3
7  6/12  50.0
8  1/16  6.3
9  4/11  36.4
10  4/14  28.6
11  4/8  50.0
12  0/6  0.0
13  0/3  0.0
14  1/2  50.0
15  1/5  20.0
16  0/2  0.0
19  0/1  0.0
20  0/2  0.0
21  0/1  0.0
23  0/1  0.0
49  0/1  0.0
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