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Overrated?

Posted by cuorange on February 4, 2010

Villanova (20-1, 9-0) has become the darling of the college basketball media.  I’ve seen them projected as a number 1 seed.  I’ve heard them talked about as a final four team.  Some have even said they are the best team in the nation and have a shot at winning it all come April.
 
Villanova may wind up with a number one seed.  They won’t win it all and they won’t make the final four.
 
How do I know?  Defensive efficiency.  The Wildcat’s are ranked 62nd in that category through the first 21 games of the season.  No team in the last 6 years has made the final four with a defensive efficiency higher than 25.  No one.  Not even George Mason in 2006 (18th). Zero for 24.

Team O Efficiency D Efficiency RPI
Villanova 3 62 3

 
The Wildcats are demons on offense, with an efficiency ranking of 3, national championship caliber.  But when push comes to shove they won’t be able to stop a team somewhere along the line in the tournament and will bow out prior to the final four.
 
Nine games plus the conference tournament still remain for the Wildcats to get to the magic 25 number in defensive efficiency (plus games in the NCAA tournament).  The chances of them making it are slim.  There are no more Fairleigh Dickinson’s, Penn’s, Drexel’s or Fordham’s left on the schedule.

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