To this point we have been projecting possible final four teams and a champion based on historical trends of offensive and defensive efficiencies. This week we are adding a percentage for each team to reach the final four and win the championship. After all, a team like Texas with an offensive efficiency of 32 and a defensive efficiency of 12 meets the criteria for the final four, but their chances are less than say, Syracuse with an offensive efficiency of 11 and a defensive efficiency of 7.
These stats are through games of Saturday, 2/6/2010
Here’s the criteria to reach the final four:
1. Defensive efficiency ranking of 25 or better
2. Offensive efficiency ranking of 50 or better
3. RPI ranking of 27 or better
| Team | O Efficiency | D Efficiency | RPI | % Final Four | % Champ |
| Kansas | 2 | 4 | 1 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Wisconsin | 5 | 15 | 9 | 16.7 | 0.0 |
| Syracuse | 11 | 7 | 2 | 12.5 | 0.0 |
| Duke | 1 | 23 | 3 | 4.2 | 0.0 |
| Kansas State | 17 | 8 | 8 | 4.2 | 0.0 |
| Purdue | 22 | 17 | 11 | 4.2 | 0.0 |
| Texas | 32 | 12 | 21 | 4.2 | 0.0 |
| West Virgina | 4 | 22 | 4 | 4.2 | 0.0 |
| Brigham Young | 12 | 24 | 23 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Kentucky | 13 | 21 | 6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
The basic concept here is that though a team like Texas has both the offensive and defensive efficiencies to make it to the final four, when you combine the two the chances are much less. In other words, one of the last 24 teams have had an offensive efficiency of 32 or worse and a defensive efficiency of 12 or worse.
This refining also removes two teams from our final four contenders – Brigham Young and Kentucky, that our old formula would have included.
Three of the final four look pretty strong. The question at this point who will be the fourth team.
CUOrange Blog 