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Posts Tagged ‘Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets’

The Case for Clemson

Posted by cuorange on February 17, 2010

There is considerable angst these days among Clemson fans on whether or not the Tigers will be a part of March Madness.

At first glance there doesn’t appear to be much to worry about. The Tigers are 18-7 overall, 6-5 in the ACC, an RPI of 30, strength of schedule of 34th and have a winning record against top 25 teams (5-4). Furthermore the Tigers are 7-3 against teams ranked 1-50 in RPI and 5-2 against teams ranked 51-100 in RPI. All solid numbers that would seem to indicate there is little to worry about come selection Sunday.

However, there is a little nagging suspicion that the Tigers reputation (late season troubles, losing twice in a row in the first round of NCAA tourney) may come back to haunt.

With 5 games left in the regular season, Clemson has 3 road games (Maryland, Florida State, Wake Forest) along with home games against Virginia and Georgia Tech. For me the timing of the games is what may cause the Tigers a problem.

First, Clemson must beat a falling (2-5 in last 7 games) Virginia team at home. A loss here would be almost too much to overcome.

Next, are road trips to Maryland and Florida State (I think you now see why the Virginia game is so crucial). These are most likely two losses.

Then the Tigers final home game is with a tall, talented but struggling Georgia Tech team (lost 3 of last 4). Assuming losses in the two prior games, this becomes a crucial game for the Tigers, before they close the regular season at Wake Forest (probably a loss).

Assuming the Tigers hold court and win at home and lose on the road, they will end up 20-10 overall and 8-8 in the ACC. A first round win in the ACC Tournament would lock up a bid, but the Tigers probably get in even with a loss in the opening round (leaving them 20-11).

However, if the Tigers manage to go worse than 2-3 in their final five games I believe they will need to win at least 1 game in the ACC Tournament to advance to the Big Dance.

The selection committee is not going to choose a 19-12 Clemson team with 5 losses in their last 6 games (including ACC Tournament).

That loss to Illinois in December may haunt the Tigers yet.

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Posted in ACC Basketball, Clemson Basketball | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Using Bracketology to find the Final Four

Posted by cuorange on February 10, 2010

Who won’t make the Final Four?
 
Using Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology we look at the projected top seeds and weed through which teams will make it to Indianapolis.
 
Starting in the Midwest Kansas is a no-brainer.  With offensive and defensive efficiency ratings of 2 Kansas is the prohibitive favorite as of this writing to win the national championship.
 
Lunardi projected Georgetown as the second seed in the Midwest and while the Hoyas have had their moments (beating Duke and Villanova) they aren’t a serious threat to the Jayhawks.
 
In the West Regional Lunardi projects Villanova at a 1 seed and Michigan State as the number 2.  Last week we detailed the case of Villanova and their defensive struggles.  The Wildcats then promptly went out and gave up 101 points to Georgetown in a loss.  An about face earlier this week against West Virginia in which Villanova held the Mountaineers to 75 points has improved the Wildcats defensive efficiency ranking to 55th, and improvement of 7 spots over two games.  The Wildcats will have to improve significantly before I feel safe including them in my Final Four projections, but their offense is championship caliber, make no mistake.
 
Michigan State is currently sitting at defensive efficiency ranking of 39 and an offensive efficiency ranking of 26.  Not Final Four material either.
 
At this point we would project Texas, who Lunardi has as a 3 seed, to win this region as it is currently projected.  Georgia Tech is another team to keep an eye on here, though they have some work to do.
 
Over in the South, we would project Syracuse over Duke.  Kansas State is also in this region, but we’ll stick with the balanced attack of the Orange to edge Duke in the South final.
 
The East bracket appears to be the deepest as currently projected with Kentucky (1), West Virginia (2), Wisconsin (3) and Brigham Young (4) projected as the top 4 seeds in the region.  As of today all of these teams have the offensive and defensive efficiencies to make it to the Final Four.  The question is which one is the most likely to do so?
 
It turns out that as the numbers stand right now Wisconsin has a 16.7% chance of reaching the Final Four, West Virginia a 4.2% chance and Kentucky and BYU a 0.0% chance.  Therefore, we project Wisconsin as the second #3 seed to make it to the Final Four based on Lunardi’s projections of February 8.
 
That leaves us with a Final Four of Kansas, Texas, Syracuse and Wisconsin.  Two number 1 seeds and two number 3 seeds.
 
The semi-finals would be Kansas over Texas and Syracuse over Wisconsin.  The final would be Kansas over Syracuse.
 
These projections can and will change as Lunardi changes his projections, the season plays out and the actual teams, region placement and seedings are finalized. 
 
It’s important to note that games played in the NCAA tournament will count in the efficiency rankings and therefore a team not included as a potential Final Four team prior to the tournament could potentially be included as the tournament progresses.

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

CBB predictions for 1/9/10

Posted by cuorange on January 9, 2010

I trudge on with a 3-12 record so far. 

Date Favorite Underdog Spread Pick Result
1/9/10 Clemson Boston College 9 Clemson Win 
1/9/10 Duke Georgia Tech 7 Georgia Tech Win 
1/9/10 Texas Colorado 19 1/2 Texas Loss 
1/2/10 Kentucky Louisville 7 1/2 Louisville Loss
1/2/10 Kansas Temple 6 1/2 Temple Loss
1/2/10 Michigan State Northwestern 4 1/2 Northwestern Loss
12/22/09 Clemson Western Carolina 15 1/2 WCU Loss
12/22/09 Texas Michigan State 8 1/2 Texas Win
12/16/09 Clemson East Carolina 14 ECU Loss
12/13/09 Clemson Furman 21 1/2 Furman Loss
12/12/09 Butler Ohio State 3 1/2 Ohio State Loss
12/12/09 Kentucky Indiana 9 Kentucky Win
12/12/09 Gonzaga Dayton 12 1/2 Gonzaga Loss
12/12/09 Purdue Alabama 4 1/2 Purdue Win
12/11/09 Tennessee Middle Tennessee State 20 MTSU Loss
12/10/09 Michigan State Oakland (Mich) 21 1/2 Oakland Loss
12/10/09 Cincinnati Miami, OH 14 1/2 Cincinnati Loss
12/10/09 Syracuse Florida 2 Florida Loss

Posted in College Basketball | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Pick ’em – Bowl edition 2

Posted by cuorange on December 26, 2009

Game Spread AccuScore Predicted Score Actual Score AccuScore CUOrange Texas D B. Rink A. Eargle
NW vs. Auburn NW +7  31-21 Auburn  38-35 AU  AU  AU  NW  NW  AU 
WVU vs. Florida St. FSU +3  33-29 WVU  33-21 FSU  WVU WVU  WVU WVU  WVU 
Penn St. vs. LSU  LSU +3 25-20 PSU   19-17 PSU  PSU PSU  PSU  LSU  LSU 
Ohio State vs. Oregon OSU +3.5    26-22 OU  OSU 26-17  OU OU   OU OU   OU
Florida vs. Cincinnati  UC +12 34-24 UF  51-24 UF  UC  UF   UF UC   UC
SC vs. UConn UConn +4.5  27-24 SC  20-7 UC   UC UC UC  SC  SC 
Oklahoma St. vs. Mississippi  OSU +3 25-23 UM   21-7 UM OSU  UM   UM UM  UM 
Arkansas vs. East Carolina ECU +8  35-27 UA  20-17 UA   ECU  UA ECU  UA  ECU
Michigan St. vs. Texas Tech  MSU +8.5  34-26 TTU 41-31 TTU   MSU  MSU  MSU MSU  MSU 
Boise St. vs TCU BSU +8  TCU 32-25  17-10 BSU  BSU  TCU  TCU  BSU  TCU 
Iowa vs. Georgia Tech  Iowa +4  27-26 GT  24-14 Iowa  Iowa GT   Iowa GT  GT 
Texas vs. Alabama Texas +4.5  25-19 Bama  37-21 Bama  Bama  Texas  Texas  Bama   Bama

Posted in College Football | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Week 14 pick ’em

Posted by cuorange on December 1, 2009

Week 14 games, spreads, picks.  I said it couldn’t get any worse.  I was wrong.  The humans went a combined 5-35 last week.  U-G-L-Y.

Game Spread AccuScore Predicted Score Actual Score AccuScore CUOrange Texas D B. Rink A. Eargle
Oregon St. @ Oregon Oregon St.+ 9.5  OU 36-24  37-33 OU OU  OU   OSU  OU  OU
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh Cincinnati +1 28-27 UC   45-44 UC  UC Pitt    Pitt  UC  UC 
Houston @ E. Carolina ECU +1  36-33 UH 38-32 ECU   UH ECU  UH  UH  UH
W. Virginia @ Rutgers Rutgers +2.5 26-23 WVA  24-21 WVA   WVA RU   RU WVA  WVA 
Arizona @ USC Arizona +7  30-21 USC  UA 21-17 USC  UA   USC USC  USC 
Florida vs. Alabama Alabama +5.5  25-21 UF 32-13 Bama  Bama  Bama   Bama  UF  Bama
California @ Washington UW +7  32-24 Cal 42-10 UW  Cal  Cal  Cal  UW  Cal 
Texas vs. Nebraska Nebraska +14  29-19 UT  13-12 UT UN UT UT   UN UT 
S. Florida @ Connecticut S. Florida +7 30-25 UC   29-27 UC USF  USF   UC  USF USF 
Georgia Tech vs. Clemson Clemson +1  31-28 CU 39-34 GT  CU   CU GT   CU CU

Posted in College Football | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Week 10 Pick ‘Em

Posted by cuorange on November 3, 2009

Week 10 games, spreads, picks

Game Spread AccuScore Predicted Score Actual Score AccuScore CUOrange Texas D B. Rink A. Eargle
Va. Tech @ E. Carolina ECU +12.5   28-19 Tech  16-3 Tech  ECU ECU   Tech  ECU Tech 
S. Carolina @ Arkansas SC +5.5  33-23 Arky   33-16 Arky Arky  Arky   Arky  Arky  SC
LSU @ Alabama  LSU +9 26-15 Bama  24-15 Bama  Bama   LSU  LSU  LSU  Bama
Oregon @ Stanford  Stanford +5  36-26 Oregon  51-42 Stanford OU   Stanford  OU  OU  OU
Wake Forest @ Ga. Tech  Wake +15 40-23 Tech   30-27 Tech Tech   Wake  Wake  Tech  Wake
Ohio State @ Penn St.  Ohio State +3.5 26-19 PSU  24-7 OSU   PSU  PSU  PSU  PSU  OSU
Texas A&M @ Colorado Colorado +4   30-24 A&M  35-34 CU A&M   A&M  A&M  A&M  A&M
Florida State @ Clemson  FSU +8.5  33-21 CU  40-24 CU CU   FSU  FSU  CU  CU
USC @ Arizona State  ASU +11 28-17 USC   14-9 USC USC*   USC  USC  ASU  USC
Oklahoma @ Nebraska Nebraska +6   24-20 OU 10-3 NU   OU  OU  OU  OU  OU

Posted in College Football | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

ACC Power Rankings

Posted by cuorange on October 5, 2009

How were they compiled? I look at 15 statistical categories that are weighted using the historical importance of each category on determining the BCS Champion. For example, 8 of the last 9 BCS champions have finished in the top 10 in total defense and 8 of the last 9 champions have finished in the top 10 in scoring defense – these categories are more heavily weighted than, say, rushing offense.

A perfect score is 1.000.
 

Rank Team Power
1 North Carolina State .755
2 Boston College .702
3 Virginia Tech .633
4 Georgia Tech .630
5 Clemson .620
6 North Carolina .573
7 Wake Forest .471
8 Miami .453
9 Florida State .436
10 Duke .423
11 Virginia .412
12 Maryland .223

I’m sure the biggest gasp is over Miami.  I think the Canes are vastly overrated.  The media hype will tell you they’ve played “four ranked teams and beaten three of them”.  True.  One of those ranked teams was Florida State.  Another was Georgia Tech.  The third was a beat up Oklahoma team.  The Canes are 88th in rushing offense, 83rd in scoring offense, 83rd in rushing defense, 69th in scoring defense and 115th in turnover margin.  They were pole axed by Virginia Tech.  My guess is that Miami is getting the benefit of playing in the ACC.

Virginia Tech’s rating is surprisingly hurt by their total defense ranking of 47th and their turnovers gained ranking of 81.  The Hokies have some ground to make up to contend nationally as the opener against Bama showed.

A final note:  These rankings looked at how the teams have played to this point.  This is not a predictor of how they will play in the future. 

Tomorrow we’ll look at the remaining undefeated teams and rank those.

Posted in ACC Football, Clemson Football, College Football | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »