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Posts Tagged ‘Michigan State Spartans’

Using Bracketology to find the Final Four

Posted by cuorange on February 10, 2010

Who won’t make the Final Four?
 
Using Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology we look at the projected top seeds and weed through which teams will make it to Indianapolis.
 
Starting in the Midwest Kansas is a no-brainer.  With offensive and defensive efficiency ratings of 2 Kansas is the prohibitive favorite as of this writing to win the national championship.
 
Lunardi projected Georgetown as the second seed in the Midwest and while the Hoyas have had their moments (beating Duke and Villanova) they aren’t a serious threat to the Jayhawks.
 
In the West Regional Lunardi projects Villanova at a 1 seed and Michigan State as the number 2.  Last week we detailed the case of Villanova and their defensive struggles.  The Wildcats then promptly went out and gave up 101 points to Georgetown in a loss.  An about face earlier this week against West Virginia in which Villanova held the Mountaineers to 75 points has improved the Wildcats defensive efficiency ranking to 55th, and improvement of 7 spots over two games.  The Wildcats will have to improve significantly before I feel safe including them in my Final Four projections, but their offense is championship caliber, make no mistake.
 
Michigan State is currently sitting at defensive efficiency ranking of 39 and an offensive efficiency ranking of 26.  Not Final Four material either.
 
At this point we would project Texas, who Lunardi has as a 3 seed, to win this region as it is currently projected.  Georgia Tech is another team to keep an eye on here, though they have some work to do.
 
Over in the South, we would project Syracuse over Duke.  Kansas State is also in this region, but we’ll stick with the balanced attack of the Orange to edge Duke in the South final.
 
The East bracket appears to be the deepest as currently projected with Kentucky (1), West Virginia (2), Wisconsin (3) and Brigham Young (4) projected as the top 4 seeds in the region.  As of today all of these teams have the offensive and defensive efficiencies to make it to the Final Four.  The question is which one is the most likely to do so?
 
It turns out that as the numbers stand right now Wisconsin has a 16.7% chance of reaching the Final Four, West Virginia a 4.2% chance and Kentucky and BYU a 0.0% chance.  Therefore, we project Wisconsin as the second #3 seed to make it to the Final Four based on Lunardi’s projections of February 8.
 
That leaves us with a Final Four of Kansas, Texas, Syracuse and Wisconsin.  Two number 1 seeds and two number 3 seeds.
 
The semi-finals would be Kansas over Texas and Syracuse over Wisconsin.  The final would be Kansas over Syracuse.
 
These projections can and will change as Lunardi changes his projections, the season plays out and the actual teams, region placement and seedings are finalized. 
 
It’s important to note that games played in the NCAA tournament will count in the efficiency rankings and therefore a team not included as a potential Final Four team prior to the tournament could potentially be included as the tournament progresses.

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College Basketball Contenders

Posted by cuorange on January 17, 2010

These stats are through games of Saturday, 1/16/2010

Here’s the criteria to reach the final four:

1. Defensive efficiency ranking of 25 or better

2. Offensive efficiency ranking of 50 or better

3. RPI ranking of 27 or better

Team O Efficiency D Efficiency RPI
Duke 1 9 1
Kansas 2 4 3
Syracuse 6 15 5
Wisconsin 16 8 7
Pittsburgh 45 25 8
Texas 32 24 10
Georgetown 15 3 13
Purdue 30 16 15
Michigan State 18 22 21
Brigham Young 5 12 23
Tennessee 44 11 25

Once a team reaches the final four, offensive efficiency becomes much more important.

National championship criteria:

1. Defensive efficiency ranking of 16 or better

2. Offensive efficiency ranking of 4 or better

3. RPI ranking of 16 or better

Kansas and Duke remain potential national champions.  Syracuse is right on the cusp with a 6th ranked offensive efficiency.

Team O Efficiency D Efficiency RPI
Duke 1 9 1
Kansas 2 4 3

Posted in College Basketball | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

CBB predictions for January 2

Posted by cuorange on January 2, 2010

You’re probably not impressed with my 3-9 record thus far. Neither am I, but I have a system. Apparently, a bad system, but a system nonetheless.

Date Favorite Underdog Spread Pick Result
1/2/10 Kentucky Louisville 7 1/2 Louisville Loss 
1/2/10 Kansas Temple 6 1/2 Temple Loss 
1/2/10 Michigan State Northwestern 4 1/2 Northwestern Loss 
12/22/09 Clemson Western Carolina 15 1/2 WCU Loss
12/22/09 Texas Michigan State 8 1/2 Texas Win
12/16/09 Clemson East Carolina 14 ECU Loss
12/13/09 Clemson Furman 21 1/2 Furman Loss
12/12/09 Butler Ohio State 3 1/2 Ohio State Loss
12/12/09 Kentucky Indiana 9 Kentucky Win
12/12/09 Gonzaga Dayton 12 1/2 Gonzaga Loss
12/12/09 Purdue Alabama 4 1/2 Purdue Win
12/11/09 Tennessee Middle Tennessee State 20 MTSU Loss
12/10/09 Michigan State Oakland (Mich) 21 1/2 Oakland Loss
12/10/09 Cincinnati Miami, OH 14 1/2 Cincinnati Loss
12/10/09 Syracuse Florida 2 Florida Loss

Posted in College Basketball | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Pick ’em – Bowl edition 2

Posted by cuorange on December 26, 2009

Game Spread AccuScore Predicted Score Actual Score AccuScore CUOrange Texas D B. Rink A. Eargle
NW vs. Auburn NW +7  31-21 Auburn  38-35 AU  AU  AU  NW  NW  AU 
WVU vs. Florida St. FSU +3  33-29 WVU  33-21 FSU  WVU WVU  WVU WVU  WVU 
Penn St. vs. LSU  LSU +3 25-20 PSU   19-17 PSU  PSU PSU  PSU  LSU  LSU 
Ohio State vs. Oregon OSU +3.5    26-22 OU  OSU 26-17  OU OU   OU OU   OU
Florida vs. Cincinnati  UC +12 34-24 UF  51-24 UF  UC  UF   UF UC   UC
SC vs. UConn UConn +4.5  27-24 SC  20-7 UC   UC UC UC  SC  SC 
Oklahoma St. vs. Mississippi  OSU +3 25-23 UM   21-7 UM OSU  UM   UM UM  UM 
Arkansas vs. East Carolina ECU +8  35-27 UA  20-17 UA   ECU  UA ECU  UA  ECU
Michigan St. vs. Texas Tech  MSU +8.5  34-26 TTU 41-31 TTU   MSU  MSU  MSU MSU  MSU 
Boise St. vs TCU BSU +8  TCU 32-25  17-10 BSU  BSU  TCU  TCU  BSU  TCU 
Iowa vs. Georgia Tech  Iowa +4  27-26 GT  24-14 Iowa  Iowa GT   Iowa GT  GT 
Texas vs. Alabama Texas +4.5  25-19 Bama  37-21 Bama  Bama  Texas  Texas  Bama   Bama

Posted in College Football | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Bank on these two…

Posted by cuorange on December 22, 2009

if you have money to lose.

Date Favorite Underdog Spread Pick Result
12/22/09 Clemson Western Carolina 15 1/2 WCU Loss 
12/22/09 Texas Michigan State 8 1/2 Texas Win 
12/16/09 Clemson East Carolina 14 ECU Loss
12/13/09 Clemson Furman 21 1/2 Furman Loss
12/12/09 Butler Ohio State 3 1/2 Ohio State Loss
12/12/09 Kentucky Indiana 9 Kentucky Win
12/12/09 Gonzaga Dayton 12 1/2 Gonzaga Loss
12/12/09 Purdue Alabama 4 1/2 Purdue Win
12/11/09 Tennessee Middle Tennessee State 20 MTSU Loss
12/10/09 Michigan State Oakland (Mich) 21 1/2 Oakland Loss
12/10/09 Cincinnati Miami, OH 14 1/2 Cincinnati Loss
12/10/09 Syracuse Florida 2 Florida Loss

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Betting on hoops

Posted by cuorange on December 10, 2009

After much success at picking football games against the spread, I decided to venture into basketball. So from time to time I will give you my picks. Don’t bet the mortgage, or anything else, on these. Entertainment (such as you laughing at me) purposes only.

Date Favorite Underdog Spread Pick Result
12/10/09 Michigan State Oakland (Mich) 21 1/2 Oakland  Loss
12/10/09 Cincinnati Miami, OH 14 1/2 Cincinnati  Loss
12/10/09 Syracuse Florida 2 Florida  Loss

Posted in College Basketball | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Week 12 Pick ‘Em

Posted by cuorange on November 17, 2009

Getting harder and harder to find 10 games.

Week 12 games, spreads, picks

Game Spread AccuScore Predicted Score Actual Score AccuScore CUOrange Texas D B. Rink A. Eargle
Ohio State @ Michigan UM +12.5 32-16 OSU   21-10 OSU OSU  Michigan   OSU  OSU OSU 
UNC @ Boston College UNC +3.5  21-16 BC   31-13 UNC BC   UNC  BC  UNC  UNC
Oklahoma @ Texas Tech TTU +7 29-26 OU  41-13 TTU  TTU   OU  OU  TTU  OU
LSU @ Mississippi LSU +3.5 25-19 Ole Miss  Ole Miss 25-23  Ole Miss  Ole Miss   LSU  LSU LSU 
Penn State @ Michigan St. MSU +3  29-23 Penn St.  42-14 Penn St.   Penn St. Penn St.   Penn St.  Penn St.  Penn St.
Virginia @ Clemson UVA +20.5 29-11 Clemson   34-21 CU UVA   CU  UVA  CU  CU
Cal @ Stanford Cal +7.5 34-29 Stanford  34-28 Cal  Cal   Stanford  Cal  Cal  Stanford
Kansas St. @ Nebraska KSU +17 33-16 Nebraska  17-3 UN  KSU   KSU  KSU  KSU  KSU
Kansas @ Texas KU +28 43-14 Texas  51-20 Texas  Texas   Texas  Kansas  Texas  Texas
Oregon @ Arizona Arizona +6 35-26 Oregon  44-41 OU  Oregon   Oregon  Oregon  Oregon Oregon 

Posted in College Football | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »