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Posts Tagged ‘Virginia Cavaliers’

The Case for Clemson

Posted by cuorange on February 17, 2010

There is considerable angst these days among Clemson fans on whether or not the Tigers will be a part of March Madness.

At first glance there doesn’t appear to be much to worry about. The Tigers are 18-7 overall, 6-5 in the ACC, an RPI of 30, strength of schedule of 34th and have a winning record against top 25 teams (5-4). Furthermore the Tigers are 7-3 against teams ranked 1-50 in RPI and 5-2 against teams ranked 51-100 in RPI. All solid numbers that would seem to indicate there is little to worry about come selection Sunday.

However, there is a little nagging suspicion that the Tigers reputation (late season troubles, losing twice in a row in the first round of NCAA tourney) may come back to haunt.

With 5 games left in the regular season, Clemson has 3 road games (Maryland, Florida State, Wake Forest) along with home games against Virginia and Georgia Tech. For me the timing of the games is what may cause the Tigers a problem.

First, Clemson must beat a falling (2-5 in last 7 games) Virginia team at home. A loss here would be almost too much to overcome.

Next, are road trips to Maryland and Florida State (I think you now see why the Virginia game is so crucial). These are most likely two losses.

Then the Tigers final home game is with a tall, talented but struggling Georgia Tech team (lost 3 of last 4). Assuming losses in the two prior games, this becomes a crucial game for the Tigers, before they close the regular season at Wake Forest (probably a loss).

Assuming the Tigers hold court and win at home and lose on the road, they will end up 20-10 overall and 8-8 in the ACC. A first round win in the ACC Tournament would lock up a bid, but the Tigers probably get in even with a loss in the opening round (leaving them 20-11).

However, if the Tigers manage to go worse than 2-3 in their final five games I believe they will need to win at least 1 game in the ACC Tournament to advance to the Big Dance.

The selection committee is not going to choose a 19-12 Clemson team with 5 losses in their last 6 games (including ACC Tournament).

That loss to Illinois in December may haunt the Tigers yet.

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Posted in ACC Basketball, Clemson Basketball | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Week 12 Pick ‘Em

Posted by cuorange on November 17, 2009

Getting harder and harder to find 10 games.

Week 12 games, spreads, picks

Game Spread AccuScore Predicted Score Actual Score AccuScore CUOrange Texas D B. Rink A. Eargle
Ohio State @ Michigan UM +12.5 32-16 OSU   21-10 OSU OSU  Michigan   OSU  OSU OSU 
UNC @ Boston College UNC +3.5  21-16 BC   31-13 UNC BC   UNC  BC  UNC  UNC
Oklahoma @ Texas Tech TTU +7 29-26 OU  41-13 TTU  TTU   OU  OU  TTU  OU
LSU @ Mississippi LSU +3.5 25-19 Ole Miss  Ole Miss 25-23  Ole Miss  Ole Miss   LSU  LSU LSU 
Penn State @ Michigan St. MSU +3  29-23 Penn St.  42-14 Penn St.   Penn St. Penn St.   Penn St.  Penn St.  Penn St.
Virginia @ Clemson UVA +20.5 29-11 Clemson   34-21 CU UVA   CU  UVA  CU  CU
Cal @ Stanford Cal +7.5 34-29 Stanford  34-28 Cal  Cal   Stanford  Cal  Cal  Stanford
Kansas St. @ Nebraska KSU +17 33-16 Nebraska  17-3 UN  KSU   KSU  KSU  KSU  KSU
Kansas @ Texas KU +28 43-14 Texas  51-20 Texas  Texas   Texas  Kansas  Texas  Texas
Oregon @ Arizona Arizona +6 35-26 Oregon  44-41 OU  Oregon   Oregon  Oregon  Oregon Oregon 

Posted in College Football | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

ACC Power Rankings

Posted by cuorange on October 5, 2009

How were they compiled? I look at 15 statistical categories that are weighted using the historical importance of each category on determining the BCS Champion. For example, 8 of the last 9 BCS champions have finished in the top 10 in total defense and 8 of the last 9 champions have finished in the top 10 in scoring defense – these categories are more heavily weighted than, say, rushing offense.

A perfect score is 1.000.
 

Rank Team Power
1 North Carolina State .755
2 Boston College .702
3 Virginia Tech .633
4 Georgia Tech .630
5 Clemson .620
6 North Carolina .573
7 Wake Forest .471
8 Miami .453
9 Florida State .436
10 Duke .423
11 Virginia .412
12 Maryland .223

I’m sure the biggest gasp is over Miami.  I think the Canes are vastly overrated.  The media hype will tell you they’ve played “four ranked teams and beaten three of them”.  True.  One of those ranked teams was Florida State.  Another was Georgia Tech.  The third was a beat up Oklahoma team.  The Canes are 88th in rushing offense, 83rd in scoring offense, 83rd in rushing defense, 69th in scoring defense and 115th in turnover margin.  They were pole axed by Virginia Tech.  My guess is that Miami is getting the benefit of playing in the ACC.

Virginia Tech’s rating is surprisingly hurt by their total defense ranking of 47th and their turnovers gained ranking of 81.  The Hokies have some ground to make up to contend nationally as the opener against Bama showed.

A final note:  These rankings looked at how the teams have played to this point.  This is not a predictor of how they will play in the future. 

Tomorrow we’ll look at the remaining undefeated teams and rank those.

Posted in ACC Football, Clemson Football, College Football | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »