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Posts Tagged ‘West Virginia Moutaineers’

Bracketology and the Final Four

Posted by cuorange on February 19, 2010

Last week’s iteration had a Final Four of Kansas, Texas, Wisconsin and Syracuse. Lunardi has moved some teams to different regions this week, and coupled with Texas’ continued free fall, this has changed our projected Final Four.

Kansas wins the Midwest and Syracuse takes the West over Purdue/West Virginia. Our first non-number one seed advances in the South with Wisconsin, a projected #3, ousting Kentucky, and this is followed by projected 2 seed Duke beating Villanova.

I am one of the ones that don’t think Duke passes the eyeball test. On the other hand, the point of this exercise is to take the biases (against or for a certain team, such as Duke) out of the equation and when you do that the Blue Devils have really good numbers (like the #1 rated offensive efficiency for much of the year).

Team O Efficiency D Efficiency RPI % Final Four % Champ
Kansas 2 3 1 100.0 83.3
Duke 1 12 4 37.5 33.3
Syracuse 13 6 2 12.5 0.0
Wisconsin 14 9 14 12.5 0.0

In the semi’s it would be Kansas over Syracuse in what could be an entertaining game and Duke over Wisconsin (who they’ve already lost to this season).

The final would be Kansas over Duke.

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College Basketball Contenders

Posted by cuorange on February 14, 2010

These stats are through games of Saturday, 2/13/2010

Here’s the criteria to reach the final four:

1. Defensive efficiency ranking of 25 or better

2. Offensive efficiency ranking of 50 or better

3. RPI ranking of 27 or better

Team O Efficiency D Efficiency RPI % Final Four % Champ
Kansas 2 3  1   100.0 83.3 
Duke 1 12 4    37.5  33.3
Syracuse 13 6 2   12.5 0.0
Wisconsin 14 9 14   12.5 0.0
Kansas State 21 14 8   8.3 0.0
Purdue 23 11 10   4.2  0.0 
West Virginia 4 25 6   4.2 0.0
Brigham Young 10 21 19   0.0 0.0
Kentucky 18 19 5   0.0 0.0

The basic concept here is that though a team like West Virginia has both the offensive and defensive efficiencies to make it to the final four, when you combine the two the chances are much less. In other words, one of the last 24 teams have had an offensive efficiency of 4 or worse and a defensive efficiency of 25 or worse.

This refining also removes two teams from our final four contenders – Brigham Young and Kentucky, that our old formula would have included.

It looks like we have a Final Four: Kansas, Duke, Syracuse and Wisconsin.  Later this week, we’ll use Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology to put teams into regions and see if that has any effect on which teams make it to the Final Four (i.e. if Kansas and Syracuse end up in the same region only one team can advance).

The percentages don’t add up to 100% because in this formula one team’s chances are independent of another teams chances.

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Using Bracketology to find the Final Four

Posted by cuorange on February 10, 2010

Who won’t make the Final Four?
 
Using Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology we look at the projected top seeds and weed through which teams will make it to Indianapolis.
 
Starting in the Midwest Kansas is a no-brainer.  With offensive and defensive efficiency ratings of 2 Kansas is the prohibitive favorite as of this writing to win the national championship.
 
Lunardi projected Georgetown as the second seed in the Midwest and while the Hoyas have had their moments (beating Duke and Villanova) they aren’t a serious threat to the Jayhawks.
 
In the West Regional Lunardi projects Villanova at a 1 seed and Michigan State as the number 2.  Last week we detailed the case of Villanova and their defensive struggles.  The Wildcats then promptly went out and gave up 101 points to Georgetown in a loss.  An about face earlier this week against West Virginia in which Villanova held the Mountaineers to 75 points has improved the Wildcats defensive efficiency ranking to 55th, and improvement of 7 spots over two games.  The Wildcats will have to improve significantly before I feel safe including them in my Final Four projections, but their offense is championship caliber, make no mistake.
 
Michigan State is currently sitting at defensive efficiency ranking of 39 and an offensive efficiency ranking of 26.  Not Final Four material either.
 
At this point we would project Texas, who Lunardi has as a 3 seed, to win this region as it is currently projected.  Georgia Tech is another team to keep an eye on here, though they have some work to do.
 
Over in the South, we would project Syracuse over Duke.  Kansas State is also in this region, but we’ll stick with the balanced attack of the Orange to edge Duke in the South final.
 
The East bracket appears to be the deepest as currently projected with Kentucky (1), West Virginia (2), Wisconsin (3) and Brigham Young (4) projected as the top 4 seeds in the region.  As of today all of these teams have the offensive and defensive efficiencies to make it to the Final Four.  The question is which one is the most likely to do so?
 
It turns out that as the numbers stand right now Wisconsin has a 16.7% chance of reaching the Final Four, West Virginia a 4.2% chance and Kentucky and BYU a 0.0% chance.  Therefore, we project Wisconsin as the second #3 seed to make it to the Final Four based on Lunardi’s projections of February 8.
 
That leaves us with a Final Four of Kansas, Texas, Syracuse and Wisconsin.  Two number 1 seeds and two number 3 seeds.
 
The semi-finals would be Kansas over Texas and Syracuse over Wisconsin.  The final would be Kansas over Syracuse.
 
These projections can and will change as Lunardi changes his projections, the season plays out and the actual teams, region placement and seedings are finalized. 
 
It’s important to note that games played in the NCAA tournament will count in the efficiency rankings and therefore a team not included as a potential Final Four team prior to the tournament could potentially be included as the tournament progresses.

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Projecting the Final Four and Champion

Posted by cuorange on February 7, 2010

To this point we have been projecting possible final four teams and a champion based on historical trends of offensive and defensive efficiencies. This week we are adding a percentage for each team to reach the final four and win the championship. After all, a team like Texas with an offensive efficiency of 32 and a defensive efficiency of 12 meets the criteria for the final four, but their chances are less than say, Syracuse with an offensive efficiency of 11 and a defensive efficiency of 7.

These stats are through games of Saturday, 2/6/2010

Here’s the criteria to reach the final four:

1. Defensive efficiency ranking of 25 or better

2. Offensive efficiency ranking of 50 or better

3. RPI ranking of 27 or better

Team O Efficiency D Efficiency RPI % Final Four % Champ
Kansas  1  100.0  100.0 
Wisconsin 5 15  16.7  0.0 
Syracuse 11 12.5  0.0 
Duke  1  23  4.2  0.0 
Kansas State  17 4.2 0.0 
Purdue  22 17  11   4.2  0.0 
Texas   32  12  21    4.2  0.0
West Virgina  4 22    4.2  0.0 
Brigham Young  12 24  23    0.0  0.0 
Kentucky  13 21    0.0  0.0 

The basic concept here is that though a team like Texas has both the offensive and defensive efficiencies to make it to the final four, when you combine the two the chances are much less.  In other words, one of the last 24 teams have had an offensive efficiency of 32 or worse and a defensive efficiency of 12 or worse.

This refining also removes two teams from our final four contenders – Brigham Young and Kentucky, that our old formula would have included.

Three of the final four look pretty strong.  The question at this point who will be the fourth team.

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CBB contenders through December 26

Posted by cuorange on December 27, 2009

Here’s a quick look at teams that are playing their way into contention as of 12/26/2009.

Here’s the criteria to reach the final four:
1. Defensive efficiency ranking of 25 or better
2. Offensive efficiency ranking of 50 or better
3. RPI ranking of 27 or better

With those numbers in mind here are the teams that look like they are on the right path. Again – it’s early and a lot of teams are playing directional schools which is hurting their RPI. Obviously, as the season goes forward and teams start conference play RPI’s will improve and more teams will qualify.

Team O Efficiency D Efficiency RPI
Duke 3 5 1
West Virginia 6 20 5
Texas 14 1 4
Syracuse 5 13 10
Kansas 2 9 16
Purdue 47 8 13

Once a team reaches the final four, offensive efficiency becomes much more important.

National championship criteria:
1. Defensive efficiency ranking of 16 or better
2. Offensive efficiency ranking of 4 or better
3. RPI ranking of 16 or better

Kansas joins Duke as potential national champions, though barely.

Team O Efficiency D Efficiency RPI
Duke 3 5 1
Kansas 2 9 16

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Pick ’em – Bowl edition 2

Posted by cuorange on December 26, 2009

Game Spread AccuScore Predicted Score Actual Score AccuScore CUOrange Texas D B. Rink A. Eargle
NW vs. Auburn NW +7  31-21 Auburn  38-35 AU  AU  AU  NW  NW  AU 
WVU vs. Florida St. FSU +3  33-29 WVU  33-21 FSU  WVU WVU  WVU WVU  WVU 
Penn St. vs. LSU  LSU +3 25-20 PSU   19-17 PSU  PSU PSU  PSU  LSU  LSU 
Ohio State vs. Oregon OSU +3.5    26-22 OU  OSU 26-17  OU OU   OU OU   OU
Florida vs. Cincinnati  UC +12 34-24 UF  51-24 UF  UC  UF   UF UC   UC
SC vs. UConn UConn +4.5  27-24 SC  20-7 UC   UC UC UC  SC  SC 
Oklahoma St. vs. Mississippi  OSU +3 25-23 UM   21-7 UM OSU  UM   UM UM  UM 
Arkansas vs. East Carolina ECU +8  35-27 UA  20-17 UA   ECU  UA ECU  UA  ECU
Michigan St. vs. Texas Tech  MSU +8.5  34-26 TTU 41-31 TTU   MSU  MSU  MSU MSU  MSU 
Boise St. vs TCU BSU +8  TCU 32-25  17-10 BSU  BSU  TCU  TCU  BSU  TCU 
Iowa vs. Georgia Tech  Iowa +4  27-26 GT  24-14 Iowa  Iowa GT   Iowa GT  GT 
Texas vs. Alabama Texas +4.5  25-19 Bama  37-21 Bama  Bama  Texas  Texas  Bama   Bama

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CBB contenders through games of Dec. 19

Posted by cuorange on December 20, 2009

It’s early in the college basketball season, but here’s a quick look at teams that are playing their way into contention as of 12/19/2009.

Here’s the criteria to reach the final four:
1. Defensive efficiency ranking of 25 or better
2. Offensive efficiency ranking of 50 or better
3. RPI ranking of 27 or better

With those numbers in mind here are three teams that look like they are on the right path. Again – it’s early and a lot of teams are playing directional schools which is hurting their RPI. Obviously, as the season goes forward and teams start conference play RPI’s will improve and more teams will qualify.

Team O Efficiency D Efficiency RPI
Duke 3 4 2
West Virginia 11 21 7
Texas 9 1 6
Syracuse 7 11 9
Kansas 2 8 20

Once a team reaches the final four, offensive efficiency becomes much more important.

National championship criteria:
1. Defensive efficiency ranking of 16 or better
2. Offensive efficiency ranking of 4 or better
3. RPI ranking of 16 or better

One team currently meets this criteria.

Team O Efficiency D Efficiency RPI
Duke 3 4 2

The pasting of Gonzaga helped Duke’s defensive numbers immensely.

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Basketball contenders

Posted by cuorange on December 14, 2009

It’s real early in the college basketball season, but here’s a quick look at teams that are generating the stats to go all the way as of 12/14/2009.

Here’s the criteria to reach the final four:
1. Defensive efficiency ranking of 25 or better
2. Offensive efficiency ranking of 50 or better
3. RPI ranking of 27 or better

With those numbers in mind here are three teams that look like they are on the right path. Again – it’s early and a lot of teams are playing directional schools which is hurting their RPI. Obviously, as the season goes forward and teams start conference play RPI’s will improve and more teams will qualify.

Team O Efficiency D Efficiency RPI
Duke 3 16 1
West Virginia 21 6 4
Texas 14 1 5
Syracuse 13 10 7
Kansas 2 8 21

Interestingly enough, once a team reaches the final four, offensive efficiency becomes much more important.

National championship criteria:
1. Defensive efficiency ranking of 16 or better
2. Offensive efficiency ranking of 4 or better
3. RPI ranking of 16 or better

One team currently meets this criteria.

Team O Efficiency D Efficiency RPI
Duke 3 16 1

Duke seems to always have good numbers, but not much success in the tourney recently.  Again, it’s early and we’ll see how these numbers evolve as the season progresses.

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Early look at basketball contenders

Posted by cuorange on December 8, 2009

It’s real early in the college basketball season, but here’s a quick look at teams that are generating the stats to go all the way.

Here’s the criteria to reach the final four:
1. Defensive efficiency ranking of 25 or better
2. Offensive efficiency ranking of 50 or better
3. RPI ranking of 27 or better

With those numbers in mind here are three teams that look like they are on the right path. Again – it’s early and a lot of teams are playing directional schools which is hurting their RPI. Obviously, as the season goes forward and teams start conference play RPI’s will improve and more teams will qualify.

Team O Efficiency D Efficiency RPI
Texas 14 1 3
West Virginia 5 17 2
Duke 3 15 1

Interestingly enough, once a team reaches the final four, offensive efficiency becomes much more important.

No team currently meets the national champion criteria as defined below:
1. Defensive efficiency ranking of 16 or better
2. Offensive efficiency ranking of 4 or better
3. RPI ranking of 16 or better

Only Duke has the offensive efficiency needed, though West Virginia is right on the cusp.

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Week 14 pick ’em

Posted by cuorange on December 1, 2009

Week 14 games, spreads, picks.  I said it couldn’t get any worse.  I was wrong.  The humans went a combined 5-35 last week.  U-G-L-Y.

Game Spread AccuScore Predicted Score Actual Score AccuScore CUOrange Texas D B. Rink A. Eargle
Oregon St. @ Oregon Oregon St.+ 9.5  OU 36-24  37-33 OU OU  OU   OSU  OU  OU
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh Cincinnati +1 28-27 UC   45-44 UC  UC Pitt    Pitt  UC  UC 
Houston @ E. Carolina ECU +1  36-33 UH 38-32 ECU   UH ECU  UH  UH  UH
W. Virginia @ Rutgers Rutgers +2.5 26-23 WVA  24-21 WVA   WVA RU   RU WVA  WVA 
Arizona @ USC Arizona +7  30-21 USC  UA 21-17 USC  UA   USC USC  USC 
Florida vs. Alabama Alabama +5.5  25-21 UF 32-13 Bama  Bama  Bama   Bama  UF  Bama
California @ Washington UW +7  32-24 Cal 42-10 UW  Cal  Cal  Cal  UW  Cal 
Texas vs. Nebraska Nebraska +14  29-19 UT  13-12 UT UN UT UT   UN UT 
S. Florida @ Connecticut S. Florida +7 30-25 UC   29-27 UC USF  USF   UC  USF USF 
Georgia Tech vs. Clemson Clemson +1  31-28 CU 39-34 GT  CU   CU GT   CU CU

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