In depth look at third downs

Here’s a table with the results of every third down situation this year (including 3rd and goal to go of the various distances). When you’re clicking along at 38.67% (70 for 181) overall you know there are going to be some ugly stats mixed in there and we don’t have to look far to find those.

While 59.1% doesn’t sound so bad, it doesn’t really sound great when it’s third and 1. Think about that. Over 40% of the time the Tigers failed on 3rd and 1. Wow. And when you get to third and 5 or more, well lets just say the chances aren’t good.

The moral of the story for the Tigers is to go into third down with 4 or less yards to go that way Clemson has a 59.7% chance of converting. Otherwise, it’s 26.3% chance for the Tigers, basically one of every 4.

There are a couple of interesting anomalies in the numbers though. While the Tigers are 5 for 15 on 3rd and 6 and 1 for 16 on 3rd and 8 (what the hell?) they are 6 for 12 on 3rd and 7 and 4 of 8 on 3rd and 11. So, 33% on 3rd and 6, 6% on 3rd and 8, but 50% on 3rd and 7 and 3rd and 11.  Alrighty.

To Go	Made/Att	PCT
1	13/22	59.1
2	7/12	58.3
3	10/16	62.5
4	10/17	58.8
5	4/13	30.8
6	5/16	31.3
7	6/12	50.0
8	1/16	6.3
9	4/11	36.4
10	4/14	28.6
11	4/8	50.0
12	0/6	0.0
13	0/3	0.0
14	1/2	50.0
15	1/5	20.0
16	0/2	0.0
19	0/1	0.0
20	0/2	0.0
21	0/1	0.0
23	0/1	0.0
49	0/1	0.0

Efficiencies

Offensive Efficiency

Opponent	TD	FG	Punts	TO	Downs	Half	Possess	Points	OE
MTSU	2	3	3	2	3	1	14	23	1.64
Georgia Tech	3	2	6	2	2	0	15	27	1.80
Boston College	0	6	5	3	1	1	16	18	1.13
TCU	1	1	5	0	4	0	11	10	0.91
Maryland	1	2	6	1	2	0	12	13	1.08
Wake Forest	5	1	6	2	0	1	15	38	2.53
Miami	3	2	3	3	1	1	13	26	2.00
Coastal Carolina	7	0	3	2	0	0	12	49	4.08
Florida State	6	0	3	2	3	0	14	40	2.86
North Carolina State	6	1	3	0	0	1	11	43	3.91
Virginia	4	2	3	0	2	1	12	34	2.83
South Carolina	1	1	7	3	1	0	13	10	0.77
Georgia Tech	5	0	0	2	2	1	10	34	3.40
Totals	44	21	53	22	21	7	168	365	2.17

Defensive Efficiency

Opponent	TD	FG	Punts	TO	Downs	Half	Possess	Points	DE
MTSU	1	0	7	3	3	1	15	7	0.47
Georgia Tech	2	3	6	2	0	2	15	23	1.53
Boston College	1	0	10	4	1	1	17	7	0.41
TCU	2	0	6	0	1	2	11	14	1.27
Maryland	3	1	7	1	1	2	15	24	1.60
Wake Forest	0	1	9	2	1	1	14	3	0.21
Miami	3	3	3	4	0	1	14	30	2.14
Coastal Carolina	0	1	8	2	0	2	13	3	0.23
Florida State	2	1	3	5	1	2	14	17	1.21
North Carolina State	3	1	5	1	1	0	11	23	2.09
Virginia	3	0	5	2	2	0	12	21	1.75
South Carolina	4	2	4	2	1	2	15	34	2.27
Gerogia Tech	4	4	0	0	1	1	10	39	3.90
Totals	28	17	73	28	13	17	176	245	1.39

Third downs plague Tigers

After a 5 of 13 day against Virgina, the Tigers got even worse last Saturday managing to convert only 3 of 13 third downs including 0 for 6 on distances between 7 and 10 yards.  Not good and something that has to improve if the Tigers are to have any chance to win on Saturday.

Year	3rd and 1-3	3rd and 4-6	3rd and 7-10	3rd and 11 or more
2008	60.71%	38.10%	20.69%	8.33%
2009	58.70%	38.64%	28.85%	20.00%
2009	27/46	17/44	15/52	6/30

Inefficiencies

Offensive Efficiency

Opponent	TD	FG	Punts	TO	Downs	Half	Possess	Points	OE
MTSU	2	3	3	2	3	1	14	23	1.64
Georgia Tech	3	2	6	2	2	0	15	27	1.80
Boston College	0	6	5	3	1	1	16	18	1.13
TCU	1	1	5	0	4	0	11	10	0.91
Maryland	1	2	6	1	2	0	12	13	1.08
Wake Forest	5	1	6	2	0	1	15	38	2.53
Miami	3	2	3	3	1	1	13	26	2.00
Coastal Carolina	7	0	3	2	0	0	12	49	4.08
Florida State	6	0	3	2	3	0	14	40	2.86
North Carolina State	6	1	3	0	0	1	11	43	3.91
Virginia	4	2	3	0	2	1	12	34	2.83
South Carolina	1	1	7	3	1	0	13	10	0.77
Totals	39	21	53	20	19	6	158	331	2.09

Defensive Efficiency

Opponent	TD	FG	Punts	TO	Downs	Half	Possess	Points	DE
MTSU	1	0	7	3	3	1	15	7	0.47
Georgia Tech	2	3	6	2	0	2	15	23	1.53
Boston College	1	0	10	4	1	1	17	7	0.41
TCU	2	0	6	0	1	2	11	14	1.27
Maryland	3	1	7	1	1	2	15	24	1.60
Wake Forest	0	1	9	2	1	1	14	3	0.21
Miami	3	3	3	4	0	1	14	30	2.14
Coastal Carolina	0	1	8	2	0	2	13	3	0.23
Florida State	2	1	3	5	1	2	14	17	1.21
North Carolina State	3	1	5	1	1	0	11	23	2.09
Virginia	3	0	5	2	2	0	12	21	1.75
South Carolina	4	2	4	2	1	2	15	34	2.27
Totals	24	13	73	28	12	16	166	206	1.24

Pass Distribution

Updated look at where the passes are going, and a reminder that Michael Palmer is money.  FYI – this information comes from the official play by play transcripts on clemsontigers.com. I know what you’re thinking – I, too thought we had more than 12 drops, but that is what the official stats say. Also, there were no drops listed for the Maryland game. I guess Maryland can’t afford that level of statistician.

Player	Thrown To	Complete	Pct	Yards	TDs	1st Downs	Drops
B. Ford	1	1	100.00	4	0	0	0
K. Johnson	1	1	100.00	11	0	1	0
M. Palmer	37	30	81.08	333	3	23	1
J. Harper	10	8	80.00	38	0	1	0
C.J. Spiller	43	29	67.44	421	4	11	0
C. Diehl	3	2	66.67	20	0	2	0
A. Ellington	14	9	64.29	48	0	4	0
X. Dye	21	13	61.90	218	3	11	1
R. Taylor	13	8	61.54	53	0	2	1
T. Ashe	20	11	55.00	124	0	7	0
J. Ford	84	45	53.57	654	5	25	5
M. Jones	15	8	53.33	167	1	5	1
D. Allen	23	9	39.13	96	3	6	3
D. Barry	3	1	33.33	2	1	0	0
B. Clear	10	3	30.00	31	0	1	0
J. Brown	9	2	22.22	24	1	1	0
Interceptions	10	–	–	–	–	–	–
Totals	317	180	56.78	2244	21	100	12

Tigers take a step back on third down

A 5 of 13 day on third downs wasn’t great and the Tigers failed miserably at times, including a 3rd and 1 at the Virginia 4 on the opening drive and two third and goals (one from the 3 and one from the 6). On the flip side, Parker found Jacoby Ford on third and 10 from the UVA 24 for a touchdown that put the Tigers up 10 with 1:52 left in the first half.

Year	3rd and 1-3	3rd and 4-6	3rd and 7-10	3rd and 11 or more
2008	60.71%	38.10%	20.69%	8.33%
2009	60.47%	37.50%	32.61%	20.00%
2009	26/43	15/40	15/46	6/30

Efficiencies through game 11

Offensive Efficiency

Opponent	TD	FG	Punts	TO	Downs	Half	Possess	Points	OE
MTSU	2	3	3	2	3	1	14	23	1.64
Georgia Tech	3	2	6	2	2	0	15	27	1.80
Boston College	0	6	5	3	1	1	16	18	1.13
TCU	1	1	5	0	4	0	11	10	0.91
Maryland	1	2	6	1	2	0	12	13	1.08
Wake Forest	5	1	6	2	0	1	15	38	2.53
Miami	3	2	3	3	1	1	13	26	2.00
Coastal Carolina	7	0	3	2	0	0	12	49	4.08
Florida State	6	0	3	2	3	0	14	40	2.86
North Carolina State	6	1	3	0	0	1	11	43	3.91
Virginia	4	2	3	0	2	1	12	34	2.83
Totals	38	20	46	17	18	6	145	321	2.21

Defensive Efficiency

Opponent	TD	FG	Punts	TO	Downs	Half	Possess	Points	DE
MTSU	1	0	7	3	3	1	15	7	0.47
Georgia Tech	2	3	6	2	0	2	15	23	1.53
Boston College	1	0	10	4	1	1	17	7	0.41
TCU	2	0	6	0	1	2	11	14	1.27
Maryland	3	1	7	1	1	2	15	24	1.60
Wake Forest	0	1	9	2	1	1	14	3	0.21
Miami	3	3	3	4	0	1	14	30	2.14
Coastal Carolina	0	1	8	2	0	2	13	3	0.23
Florida State	2	1	3	5	1	2	14	17	1.21
North Carolina State	3	1	5	1	1	0	11	23	2.09
Virginia	3	0	5	2	2	0	12	21	1.75
Totals	20	11	69	26	11	14	151	172	1.14

Pass distribution

Here’s a look at where the passes are going. FYI – this information comes from the official play by play transcripts on clemsontigers.com. I know what you’re thinking – I, too thought we had more than 12 drops, but that is what the official stats say. Also, there were no drops listed for the Maryland game. I guess Maryland can’t afford that level of statistician.

Player	Thrown To	Complete	Pct	Yards	TDs	1st Downs	Drops
B. Ford	1	1	100.00	4	0	0	0
K. Johnson	1	1	100.00	11	0	1	0
M. Palmer	33	27	81.82	303	3	21	1
J. Harper	10	8	80.00	38	0	1	0
C.J. Spiller	36	24	66.67	382	4	10	0
C. Diehl	3	2	66.67	20	0	2	0
A. Ellington	14	9	64.29	48	0	4	0
X. Dye	19	12	63.16	205	3	10	1
T. Ashe	20	11	55.00	124	0	7	0
R. Taylor	11	6	54.55	34	0	1	1
J. Ford	76	39	51.32	548	4	20	5
M. Jones	14	7	50.00	156	1	5	1
D. Barry	2	1	50.00	2	1	0	0
D. Allen	22	8	36.36	80	2	5	3
B. Clear	10	3	30.00	31	0	1	0
J. Brown	9	2	22.22	24	1	1	0
Interceptions	10	–	–	–	–	–	–
Totals	291	161	55.33	2010	19	89	12

Couple things this shows to me – 1) Michael Palmer is money. 82% of the passes thrown to him are complete. 78% of his catches are for first downs. 1 drop. 2) Dye has stepped up over the last two games and we need that to continue as the evidence is showing that he is getting open and catching the ball (63% completion rate) and has 10 first downs on 12 catches. He looks to be emerging as the second threat at WR with an occasional hand from Ashe. Marquan Jones has disappeared, playing only 1 play against FSU and 6 against N.C. State, while Ashe played 33 and 23 snaps in those games respectively.

Third Down Conversions

At first blush a 6 for 10 day on third downs appears to be ho-hum.  However, a look inside those 6 conversions shows why third down conversions are so important and lead to 20 point blow out wins.
 
Ahead 3-0 in the first quarter the Tigers faced a 3rd and 5 from their own 30.  Kyle Parker found Xavier Dye for 17 yards and first down to keep the drive alive.  Three plays later the Tigers faced 3rd and 7 at midfield.  Parker found Mr. Reliable, Michael Palmer, open for a 22 yard gain down to the N.C. State 28 and the Tigers went on to score a touchdown and go ahead 10-0.
 
Later in the second quarter the Tigers faced third and 11 from their own 42.  Parker found Jacoby Ford wide open in the center of the field for a 47 yard gain to the State 11 yard line.  Three plays later the Tigers were facing a third and 4 from the State 5 when Parker found Palmer open in the back of the end zone for a touchdown and a 17 point lead.
 
In the 4th quarter with the State still hanging around and trailing by 13, the Tigers had a 3rd and 3 from their own 43.  A stop here meant State could potentially have pulled within 6 points.  It wasn’t meant to be as Parker found Palmer again for a 16 yard game to the N.C. State 41 and the Tigers put the game away 2 plays later on a Spiller wheel route for a 36-17 lead.

Year	3rd and 1-3	3rd and 4-6	3rd and 7-10	3rd and 11 or more
2008	60.71%	38.10%	20.69%	8.33%
2009	62.16%	37.84%	32.56%	20.69%
2009	23/37	14/37	14/43	6/29

 
That was the good.  The bad was that the Tigers faced 3 third downs of 11 yards or more bringing their season total to 29 third downs of 11 yards or more.  Playing behind the chains as Swinney says.  And while the Tigers converted one of these last Saturday and ended up scoring on the drive, statistically speaking the odds are small on converting third and 11 or more.

Efficiencies

The Tigers marched up and down the field on Saturday, scoring 38 or more for the 5th game in a row. Sure, there were mistakes (missed extra points, etc), but a sign of a good team is winning by 20 on the road when you play less than perfect. More on this later in my weekly third down conversions post, but the Tigers came up huge on third downs.

Offensive Efficiency

Opponent	TD	FG	Punts	TO	Downs	Half	Possess	Points	OE
MTSU	2	3	3	2	3	1	14	23	1.64
Georgia Tech	3	2	6	2	2	0	15	27	1.80
Boston College	0	6	5	3	1	1	16	18	1.13
TCU	1	1	5	0	4	0	11	10	0.91
Maryland	1	2	6	1	2	0	12	13	1.08
Wake Forest	5	1	6	2	0	1	15	38	2.53
Miami	3	2	3	3	1	1	13	26	2.00
Coastal Carolina	7	0	3	2	0	0	12	49	4.08
Florida State	6	0	3	2	3	0	14	40	2.86
North Carolina State	6	1	3	0	0	2	12	43	3.58
Totals	34	18	43	17	16	6	134	287	2.14

The Tiger defense gave up 23 points, but six of those were in garbage time, so for all intents and purposes they held a powerful offense (averaging 33 points a game) to 17 points. Russell Wilson had 0 passing yards 20 minutes into the game. Still, stupid penalties enabled the Pack on several occasions and that is something that needs to be corrected.

Kevin Steele was irate about the garbage time touchdown, which bodes well for the team being “coached up” this week.

Defensive Efficiency

Opponent	TD	FG	Punts	TO	Downs	Half	Possess	Points	DE
MTSU	1	0	7	3	3	1	15	7	0.47
Georgia Tech	2	3	6	2	0	2	15	23	1.53
Boston College	1	0	10	4	1	1	17	7	0.41
TCU	2	0	6	0	1	2	11	14	1.27
Maryland	3	1	7	1	1	2	15	24	1.60
Wake Forest	0	1	9	2	1	1	14	3	0.21
Miami	3	3	3	4	0	1	14	30	2.14
Coastal Carolina	0	1	8	2	0	2	13	3	0.23
Florida State	2	1	3	5	1	2	14	17	1.21
North Carolina State	3	1	5	1	1	0	11	23	2.09
Totals	17	11	64	24	9	14	139	151	1.09